“FOMO论 vs 泡沫论”，华尔街认为明年美股波动率低不了

Group 1: Market Overview - Wall Street is preparing for continued volatility in the U.S. stock market in 2026, with investors oscillating between fear of missing out (FOMO) on AI rebounds and anxiety over potential asset bubbles bursting [1] - The past 18 months have shown a pattern of large sell-offs and rapid reversals, which is expected to continue into 2026, particularly influenced by tech giants at the center of the AI revolution [1] - Despite strong performance in tech stocks in 2025, the divergence between sectors has suppressed actual market volatility, but risks from falling chip stocks could trigger broader market impacts [1] Group 2: Volatility Strategies - UBS strategists highlight that the AI boom's sustainability is crucial for volatility strategies, with high volatility contracts on the Nasdaq 100 index being a key focus [2] - The strategy of buying Nasdaq 100 volatility while selling S&P 500 volatility is viewed as a high-confidence trade for the upcoming year [2] - JPMorgan strategists anticipate that volatility will fluctuate between technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic factors, with the VIX expected to average between 16 and 17 in 2026 [2] Group 3: Options Market Dynamics - Structural imbalances in the options market are reshaping pricing, with a steepening volatility curve expected in 2026 due to an imbalance in investment flows [3] - Quantitative investment strategies and volatility selling strategies are increasing supply on the short end of the curve, while hedging funds are expected to keep long-end volatility elevated [3] - The fear of missing out and conflicting narratives around AI are creating favorable conditions for trading volatility [3] Group 4: Divergence in Trading Strategies - The "diversified trading" strategy, betting on individual stock volatility while keeping index volatility low, may become popular but raises concerns about overcrowding [4] - Some hedge funds are taking contrary positions, suggesting that the strategy may be overly crowded [4] - Despite concerns, capital is expected to continue flowing into diversified strategies, maintaining single-stock volatility premiums over indices [5] Group 5: Re-leveraging Cycle and Tail Risks - A volatility mechanism model based on the yield curve indicates that a flattening curve signals buying volatility, while a steepening curve triggers selling [6] - The model has historically avoided significant drawdowns during market downturns, suggesting that volatility is likely to rise in 2026 [6] - The U.S. is on the brink of a new re-leveraging cycle driven by AI, which could lead to increased credit spreads and equity volatility [6]