东吴证券:保险公司资产负债管理新规征求意见 板块估值仍有较大向上空间
SCSSCS(SH:601555) 智通财经网·2025-12-22 02:08

Core Viewpoint - The new regulatory framework for insurance asset-liability management aims to enhance risk management and ensure stable operations within the industry, responding to changes in the interest rate environment, product structure, and accounting standards [1][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Revising Regulations - The revision responds to the requirement of the third insurance "National Ten Articles" to strengthen asset-liability linkage supervision [1] - It promotes insurance companies to enhance their asset-liability management [1] - The new regulations align with the implementation of new accounting standards in 2026, adjusting the asset-liability matching indicators [1] Group 2: Changes Compared to Current Rules - The new draft consolidates previously scattered regulatory requirements, providing comprehensive norms for governance systems, responsibility allocation, and management procedures [2] - It specifies regulatory indicators and emphasizes long-term assessment and evaluation [2] Group 3: Quantitative Management Indicators - The new regulations include two types of indicators: regulatory indicators (3 for property insurance, 4 for life insurance) and monitoring indicators (3 for property insurance, 7 for life insurance) [3] - Regulatory indicators for property insurance include: 1. Coverage ratio of settled funds = settled funds / medium to long-term assets 2. Income coverage ratio = (insurance service income + comprehensive investment income) / comprehensive costs 3. Liquidity coverage ratio under stress scenarios, all must not be below 100% [3] - Regulatory indicators for life insurance include: 1. Effective duration gap = effective duration of cash inflows - effective duration of cash outflows, with a required range of [-5, 5] 2. Comprehensive investment income coverage ratio = comprehensive investment income / liability funding cost 3. Net investment income coverage ratio = net investment income / liability guarantee cost 4. Liquidity coverage ratio under stress scenarios, all must not be below 100% [3] - The calculation methods for these indicators have been optimized, with adjustments based on macroeconomic changes and an extended evaluation period of 3-5 years to guide long-term operations [3] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The industry is entering a new cycle with improvements in both the liability and asset sides, indicating significant upward valuation potential [5] - Market demand remains strong, with a reduction in preset interest rates and a shift towards dividend insurance expected to optimize liability costs [5] - The recent decline in the yield of 10-year government bonds to approximately 1.83% is anticipated to alleviate pressure on new fixed-income investment yields for insurance companies as the domestic economy recovers [5] - Current public fund holdings in insurance stocks are under-allocated, with the insurance sector's valuation projected at 0.65-0.95 times PEV and 1.27-2.17 times PB by December 19, 2025, indicating historical low valuations [5]