顶级经济学家警告：美国经济正走向“严重衰退”！而美联储却“看不见”

Core Viewpoint - Top economist Henrik Zeberg warns that the U.S. economy is heading in an unfavorable direction, indicating a serious economic downturn that the Federal Reserve has failed to recognize [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Analysis - Zeberg criticizes the Federal Reserve for its fundamental misinterpretation of economic signals, despite having a large team of trained economists [2]. - He believes that the complexity of analytical methods has obscured the underlying realities of the business cycle, rather than clarifying them [2][4]. - Understanding the correct sequence of events within the business cycle is crucial for predicting recessions, and misinterpretation has left policymakers unprepared for future economic conditions [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Zeberg highlights the rising unemployment rate as a key indicator that precedes major recessions, currently at 4.6%, the highest in four years, which increases the likelihood of a recession to about 40% [4]. - He asserts that weak labor, housing, and consumer indicators suggest a significant economic contraction is forthcoming, and short-term liquidity from the Federal Reserve is unlikely to offset deeper structural pressures [4].