黄金将成2026年涨幅最大的金属？

Core Viewpoint and Target Price - The target price for gold is projected to reach a quarterly high of $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with a long-term price range of $3,500 to $4,400 per ounce, and potential peaks even higher [1] - The core judgment indicates that gold will benefit from Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and increased central bank and investment demand, while platinum and palladium are expected to lead the rise in precious metals, with silver potentially retreating to the mid-$40 range [1] Bullish Core Logic - Anticipation of a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026 will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a steepening yield curve and concerns over Fed independence will further enhance safe-haven buying demand [2] - High U.S. debt levels, de-dollarization, and the push for de-globalization are driving central banks to continue increasing gold holdings, with investors reallocating to commodities and sustained net inflows into gold ETFs indicating rising investment demand [2] - Limited supply growth and diversified demand (from central banks, investors, and industrial uses) are supporting prices, with the long-term price range moving up to $3,500 to $4,400 per ounce [2] Downside Risk Factors - Strengthening U.S. risk assets may lead to capital outflows from safe-haven assets, diminishing the attractiveness of gold allocations [3] - Resilient employment data and persistent inflation may result in the Federal Reserve cutting rates less than expected or pausing easing, which could strengthen the dollar and real interest rates, thereby suppressing gold prices [4] - Easing geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in de-dollarization may reduce gold's priority as a safe-haven and allocation asset [5] Market and Institutional Comparison - Various institutions have set different target prices for gold in 2026, with TD Securities projecting $4,400 per ounce based on rate cuts and central bank purchases, Deutsche Bank at a baseline of $4,450 per ounce with a peak of $4,950 per ounce due to strong central bank and ETF demand, and others indicating even higher targets based on similar factors [6] Key Operations and Observations - Monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy path and inflation data, particularly the extent and timing of rate cuts in 2026, is crucial as it serves as a core catalyst for gold prices [7] - Tracking central bank gold purchases and gold ETF fund flows will help assess the strength of physical and investment demand [8] - If gold prices retreat to around $3,600 per ounce, it is considered a favorable buying opportunity by TD Securities [9]