Group 1 - The probability of the S&P 500 index declining by 30% or more at some point in 2026 is estimated to be 8-10% based on options market pricing [1] - Historical data shows that the average interval between significant declines of 30% or more in the S&P 500 index is 12.7 years since World War II, slightly reduced to 11.8 years since 1982 [1] - Market downturns tend to cluster, with significant declines occurring in short succession followed by long periods of stability [1] Group 2 - The "misery index," which combines unemployment and year-over-year inflation rates, rose from 5.5 to 16 between 1966 and 1982, indicating a period of frequent market downturns [2] - Currently, the misery index has increased from 5.2 in 2019 to 7.4, suggesting a potential shift towards more frequent economic recessions [2] Group 3 - The gig economy is acting as a "safety valve" for unemployed workers, explaining why unemployment has not led to a surge in unemployment insurance claims [3] - The number of self-employed workers surged from 9.7 million in September to 10.3 million in November, with the proportion of workers holding multiple jobs rising to 5.7%, the highest level since the 2008-09 recession [3] Group 4 - Despite a weakening economy, the stock market remains overvalued by most measures, with proprietary liquidity indices indicating downward pressure on the market [4] - There is skepticism regarding the widely held belief that economic growth will be stronger with higher inflation by 2026, as such clear forecasts rarely materialize as expected [4] - Current economic pressures, high stock market valuations, and the rising misery index suggest that the pricing of downside risk insurance (i.e., put options) may still be undervalued [4]
期权市场“透视”2026年美股：遭遇30%暴跌概率达10% 警惕“痛苦指数”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-22 03:31