Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-22 03:39Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities recommends focusing on leading companies in the express delivery industry, particularly SF Holding and Zhongtong Express, due to expected improvements in operational and cash flow performance as the industry undergoes significant changes and price recovery [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In November, the express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in business volume, with a cumulative total of 1,807.4 billion parcels delivered from January to November, reflecting a 14.9% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods reached 11.82 trillion yuan from January to November, growing by 5.7% year-on-year, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the total retail sales growth [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - In November, the business volumes for major companies were as follows: YTO Express delivered 2.886 billion parcels, Shentong Express 2.502 billion, Yunda Express 2.175 billion, and SF Holding 1.534 billion. SF Holding showed the highest growth rate at 20.13% [3]. - For the cumulative business volume from January to November, the figures were: YTO Express 28.26 billion parcels, Shentong Express 23.64 billion, Yunda Express 23.45 billion, and SF Holding 15.16 billion, with SF Holding leading in growth rate at 27.25% [3]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - The express delivery industry saw a 1.9% month-on-month increase in average pricing in November, with the average price per parcel at 7.62 yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year [4]. - SF Holding's average price per parcel increased by 0.29 yuan month-on-month to 13.47 yuan, while Shentong Express's price rose by 0.23 yuan to 2.41 yuan [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to continue growing, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce, despite a downward trend in the average value of goods per parcel [5]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the industry is leading to price recovery and a shift towards high-quality development, suggesting a potential acceleration in market differentiation among companies [5].