周期内国际油价创年内新低 成品油将迎年内第十二次下跌

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil prices are expected to decline, leading to a reduction in gasoline and diesel prices in China, with a forecasted decrease of 170 yuan per ton for gasoline and 165 yuan per ton for diesel, marking the twelfth price cut since 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Forecast - The next price adjustment window is anticipated to open on December 22, with gasoline and diesel prices expected to decrease by 170 and 165 yuan per ton, respectively, equivalent to approximately 0.89, 0.92, 0.95, and 0.14 yuan per liter [1][2]. - The price adjustment cycle began positively but quickly shifted to a negative range, with the highest change rate at 0.21% and the lowest at -3.62% during the cycle [1]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Logistics - For private car owners, filling a 50L tank will cost approximately 6.5 yuan less, while for large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by about 5.6 yuan [2]. - The current average prices for diesel and gasoline across most regions are between 6.3-6.5 yuan per liter and 6.2-6.7 yuan per liter, respectively, indicating a reduction in fuel costs for consumers [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The international crude oil market has shown a downward trend, with domestic wholesale prices for gasoline increasing by 0.56% and diesel decreasing by 2.41% during the adjustment cycle [6]. - Despite concerns over geopolitical tensions affecting supply, the overall market sentiment remains weak, leading to a decrease in demand for gasoline and diesel [7][11]. - The upcoming New Year holiday is expected to provide a temporary boost in gasoline demand, while diesel demand continues to weaken, indicating a potential for further price adjustments [12]. Group 4: Price Differential Analysis - The price differential between wholesale and retail for gasoline has contracted while expanding for diesel, with average retail profits for gasoline decreasing by 106 yuan per ton and for diesel by 74 yuan per ton [12]. - The procurement costs from local refineries show an increase in profits for diesel, with an average rise of 185 yuan per ton compared to the previous cycle [12].