【UNforex财经事件】宏观信号分化 地缘风险继续影响资产定价

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding future monetary policy, with key officials signaling a preference for maintaining the current interest rate levels rather than further easing [1][2]. Policy Signals - The December meeting revealed a lack of consensus within the Federal Reserve on continuing rate cuts, as indicated by the number of dissenting votes and the cautious stance of several officials on further easing [2] - Cleveland Fed President Mester emphasized the need to maintain the current interest rate range of 3.50%-3.75% until inflation trends are confirmed and the labor market shows clearer signs of cooling [2] - New York Fed President Williams noted that previous rate cuts have provided some economic buffer, suggesting no immediate urgency for policy adjustments [2] - Political discussions surrounding the next Federal Reserve chair have intensified, complicating the environment for interest rate pricing [2] - Market expectations for maintaining rates in January 2024 have risen to nearly 79%, indicating a cooling of expectations for further rate cuts [2] Market Reaction - In the observation phase of policy, the performance of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields has shown structural divergence, with the 10-year Treasury yield slightly declining while the dollar index remains stable [3] - Geopolitical risks continue to persist, with the U.S. tightening regulations on Venezuelan oil transport and ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe, which have not improved the prospects for peace [3] - The market is pricing in risk premiums due to multiple uncertainties, with oil prices receiving temporary support and gold maintaining high levels amid policy divisions and geopolitical disturbances [3] Summary - The market is transitioning from confirming the results of rate cuts to validating the effects of policy, characterized by uncertainty and range-bound volatility [5] - The importance of risk control is emphasized over the pursuit of returns, suggesting a patient approach until clearer policy and macro signals emerge [5]