降息预期持续升温、金价前景仍是蓄力再冲顶

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced fluctuations last week, with prices showing a relative narrowing of volatility compared to the previous week, remaining below the trendline pressure, indicating a risk of pullback, yet the overall trend remains bullish due to the ongoing interest rate cut cycle [1] Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $4299.43 per ounce, fluctuating daily, hitting a weekly low of $4271.65 on Tuesday, then rebounding to a weekly high of $4374.14 on Thursday, and closing at $4337.90 on Friday, resulting in a weekly range of $102.49, with a net increase of $38.47, or 0.89% [3] Influencing Factors - Initial downward pressure on gold prices was attributed to previous trading day pullbacks and easing geopolitical tensions, alongside intensified competition for the Federal Reserve chair position, which diminished expectations for more accommodative policies, leading to a dip in gold prices [3] - Subsequent support buying, coupled with an increase in U.S. retail sales month-on-month for October and a rise in the unemployment rate for November, reinforced expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, prompting a rebound in gold prices [3] Outlook - For the upcoming week starting December 22, international gold opened stronger, buoyed by enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and buying support from the 5-day moving average; despite a strengthening U.S. dollar, the overall pressure on gold prices remains limited, indicating a favorable direction for gold [3]