Clocktower王凯文：旧秩序终结与美元“大熊市”下的全球资产再平衡

Core Viewpoint - The new U.S. National Security Strategy marks a significant geopolitical shift, acknowledging the end of U.S. unipolarity and the rise of a multipolar world, which will reshape global macroeconomic and asset pricing logic [1][6][11]. Group 1: U.S. Dollar and Global Capital - The U.S. dollar is entering its largest bear market in history, with a potential depreciation of nearly 40% over the next 5-8 years due to geopolitical changes and irresponsible fiscal policies [3][11]. - Global capital must diversify away from dollar assets, as the dollar's bear market necessitates a shift from the current 70%-80% allocation in dollar assets to a more diversified global portfolio [3][12]. - Chinese assets represent the largest "short squeeze" opportunity, with institutional allocations to Chinese assets at less than 2%, despite China accounting for approximately 20% of the global economy [3][12]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - The bull market for gold is not over, driven by Western fiscal irresponsibility and the eventual monetization of debt, which will continue to erode fiat currency credibility [3][12]. - Silver has greater potential than gold, with recent technical breakthroughs and a larger market capacity, making it a more attractive investment option [3][12]. Group 3: Inflation and U.S. Stock Market - The core issue for 2026 will be inflation, with current U.S. inflation at around 3%, exceeding the 2% target, and the Federal Reserve's potential policy shift towards rate hikes if inflation rises further [4][14]. - The U.S. stock market is in the "final leg of a bull market," characterized by strong earnings growth but stagnant valuations, indicating increased risk as market expectations may shift towards tightening monetary policy [4][14].