古人的“天气预报”还管用吗？用气象大数据解析古人智慧总结发现意外惊喜

Group 1 - The ancient saying "If it is sunny on the winter solstice, it will rain in the year; if it rains, it will be sunny" is questioned for its relevance in modern weather prediction [1] - The accuracy of such predictions is close to random probability, around 50%, with studies from cities like Ningbo showing an accuracy of approximately 47% over 34 years [4] - Modern meteorology indicates that the climate system is complex, making it difficult for a single seasonal weather phenomenon to determine the weather a month later [6] Group 2 - Global warming and increased extreme weather events have disrupted the stable climate patterns that traditional sayings relied upon [8] - Meteorological data from winter, especially since the winter solstice, is used in climate prediction models to forecast weather conditions around the Spring Festival [10] - An interesting phenomenon revealed by data is that when the Spring Festival is more than 45 days after the winter solstice, the probability of "If it is sunny on the winter solstice, it will rain in the year" increases [13] Group 3 - During the winter solstice, China often experiences clear and dry weather due to cold high pressure, while the Spring Festival sees active warm and moist air leading to rain and snow [15] - The sayings are based on long-term observations and experiences of ancient people [15]