港股异动 优然牧业(09858)午后涨超7% 股价刷新年内新高 机构看好牧业大周期

Core Viewpoint - Yuran Dairy (09858) has seen its stock price rise over 7%, reaching a new high of 4.91 HKD, driven by favorable market conditions and industry trends [1]. Company Summary - Yuran Dairy is the largest raw milk supplier in China, operating 100 farms and raising approximately 620,000 dairy cows. The company is projected to produce about 3.74 million tons of raw milk in 2024, accounting for 12.1% of the national total [1]. - The company is also the largest provider of ruminant feed in China, with its subsidiary, Saikexing, being the largest dairy cattle breeding enterprise in the country [1]. - In the first half of this year, Yuran Dairy reported an average feed cost of 1.91 HKD per kilogram, with a leading cow yield of 12.9 tons per cow [1]. Industry Summary - Recent reports indicate that the price of raw milk has rebounded to around 3 HKD per kilogram, which has slowed the industry's destocking rate. However, the industry continues to face significant financial pressure and ongoing losses, suggesting that capacity reduction may persist [1]. - It is anticipated that as supply-side capacity reduction gradually takes effect, raw milk prices may stabilize and recover next year [1]. - In the beef cattle sector, prices for calves and live cattle have recently increased, indicating the potential for a new beef cattle cycle, which could enhance the overall sector's performance [1].