TMGM外汇：澳洲联储表态谨慎，为何澳元反而走强？

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the US dollar, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rates and inflation [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50% [1]. - Traders are focusing on the upcoming RBA meeting minutes to gauge the central bank's policy direction and stance on inflation [2]. - As of December 18, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures for February 2026 indicate a 27% probability of the RBA raising rates to 3.85% [3]. Group 2: US Economic Indicators - The US dollar has ended a three-day rally, with the dollar index (DXY) trading around 98.60, as market participants await the release of the US Q3 GDP annualized data [4]. - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester stated that current monetary policy is appropriate for pausing rate hikes to assess the impact of previous rate cuts [4]. - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2021 [4]. Group 3: Leadership Changes in the Federal Reserve - The next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to be someone who supports significant rate cuts, with Christopher Waller being a potential candidate who has reiterated a dovish stance on interest rates [5]. Group 4: Australian Inflation Data - Australian consumer inflation expectations have risen from 4.5% in November to 4.7% in December, supporting a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia [6]. Group 5: Australian Dollar Technical Analysis - The Australian dollar is currently trading around 0.6620, maintaining an overall upward trend, with key resistance levels at 0.6685 and 0.6707 [8]. - The 14-day RSI is at 57.05, indicating a neutral to bullish sentiment, while the 9-day EMA shows an upward trend but may exert short-term pressure on prices [8].