基金经理刘少军|为什么说资源品是2026年资产配置的重要选项？

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is navigating through a complex macro landscape, with resource commodities emerging as a central focus for asset allocation due to global shifts, industrial cycles, and domestic policy directions [1] Group 1: Equity Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a more balanced style in the coming year, with value sectors likely to be revalued due to attractive valuations and high dividend strategies amid economic recovery [1][2] - The technology growth sector, while still a core direction for long-term industrial upgrades, is undergoing significant changes, shifting from broad speculation on frontier technologies to a focus on performance verification [1][2] Group 2: Global Perspective on Resource Commodities - The investment logic for resource commodities is rooted in structural changes driven by global macro shifts, highlighting their "scarcity" and "inflation resilience" [3] - Supply constraints and rising costs are evident as high-quality mining sources deplete, leading to increased extraction costs for key industrial metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel [3] - Demand remains robust, driven by global energy transitions and re-industrialization, with strategic importance placed on resources like copper and aluminum, which are now considered as critical as "oil in the new era" [3] Group 3: Domestic Perspective on Cyclical Resource Commodities - The domestic cyclical resource sector presents unique investment opportunities due to improved supply-demand dynamics, leading to enhanced profitability and dividend attractiveness [5] - Capital expenditure has peaked in many domestic resource sectors, with limited new supply, while policies promoting "de-involution" and "unified market" are optimizing industry structures and stabilizing prices [5][6] - The aluminum industry, for instance, is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, allowing companies to maintain strong profitability and cash flow, thus supporting high dividend yields [6] Group 4: Investment Fund Focus - The TaiKang Resource Select Fund aims to capitalize on historical opportunities in the resource sector, focusing on a wide range of resource-related industries [8][9] - The fund is positioned as a cyclical growth fund, targeting high elasticity sub-sectors and leveraging macro research to identify structural opportunities within the resource commodities market [10][12]