12月LPR不变！货币政策保持较强定力，明年一季度有降息降准可能

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term as of December 22, 2025, aligning with market expectations and indicating stability in monetary policy [1][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The December LPR remains consistent with previous values, reflecting no changes in policy rates [4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 67.3 billion yuan at a stable rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan [4]. - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to rising financing costs for commercial banks amid historically low net interest margins [4]. Group 2: Economic Context - Since June, the LPR has not changed, supported by strong export performance and rapid development in new productive sectors, contributing to economic resilience [5]. - The PBOC's data shows that the weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.1% in November, down about 30 basis points year-on-year, indicating low loan rates [5]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the PBOC may implement a new round of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, potentially before the Spring Festival, to stimulate financing demand [6]. - The current low inflation levels provide ample room for monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts [6]. - Expectations of further interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve in December may ease constraints on domestic monetary policy flexibility [6].