广发刘晨明：拒绝传统宏观，从债务化解与盈利结构变化，看2026布局窗口

Core Viewpoint - The unique phenomenon of "AI technology stocks and resource products (gold, copper) rising simultaneously" in 2025 reflects a common pricing strategy among major global economies addressing the core issue of debt [1][9]. Group 1: Global Market Trends - In 2025, the global asset landscape will be driven by two main paths to resolve debt: technological progress enhancing total factor productivity (AI path) and inflation diluting debt (resource path) [1][9]. - The performance of technology and resource sectors, particularly in the context of rising copper prices, is expected to be a significant focus for asset allocation [3][14]. Group 2: Chinese Market Dynamics - The profit structure of A-share listed companies has fundamentally changed, with emerging industries now accounting for 40% of profits, up from 20% a decade ago, while traditional domestic demand sectors have decreased to 60% [3][10]. - The overseas revenue share of A-shares has surpassed 20%, with higher profit margins compared to domestic operations, indicating resilience in overall profitability despite domestic pressures [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - The market is expected to transition from a "fast bull" to a healthier "slow bull" due to improved ROE, regulatory control, and the entry of long-term capital [1][15]. - The upcoming months (December to January) are identified as critical for positioning, with a focus on sectors that have undergone significant adjustments, such as technology and semiconductor industries [4][18]. Group 4: Supply Constraints and Industry Trends - Supply constraints are becoming a dominant factor in various industries, including AI computing power and semiconductors, which will influence long-term trends [18]. - The current market environment suggests that traditional macro indicators are losing importance, while industry trends, global demand, and supply constraints are becoming more critical pricing factors [18][19].