2025新能源电力交易实战指南

Core Insights - The article outlines the comprehensive guide for participating in the renewable energy electricity market, emphasizing the necessity of market entry and the ongoing improvement of the policy framework [1] Policy Environment - The electricity market reform initiated in 2015 has evolved from a "benchmark price + floating mechanism" to a national unified electricity market goal, culminating in the 136 document for deepening renewable energy price marketization by 2025 [1] - By 2024, the total installed capacity of clean energy in China is expected to reach 1.91 billion kilowatts, with wind and solar energy accounting for over 45% of this capacity [1] - The market structure includes three main segments: medium to long-term trading focused on risk mitigation, spot trading aimed at price discovery, and ancillary services covering diverse needs [1] Provincial Practices - Different provinces exhibit varied characteristics in their spot market practices, with early pilot provinces like Shandong and Shanxi fully integrating renewable energy, while others like Guangdong and Zhejiang are gradually progressing [2] - In Shandong, renewable energy accounts for 45.37% of installed capacity, utilizing a "medium to long-term contract + spot deviation settlement" model to enhance revenue [2] - Provinces such as Hubei, Hunan, and Jiangsu are set to open medium to long-term trading for renewable energy by 2025, with average transaction prices generally exceeding benchmark prices [2] Core Challenges - The renewable energy sector faces three main challenges: declining settlement prices due to reduced priority generation, insufficient accuracy in power forecasting leading to deviation settlement risks, and complex trading rules with significant provincial policy differences [2][3] - The application of new tools such as green certificates, cross-provincial trading, and electricity futures increases the professional competency requirements for companies [2] Operational Strategies - A mature operational system has been established, where medium to long-term trading strategies align with electricity limits and price trends, while spot markets allow for arbitrage between day-ahead and real-time prices [3] - Risk management involves a three-tier management system that includes headquarters coordination, regional adjustments, and site responses, utilizing various records for comprehensive process control [3] - Regions like Guangdong are transitioning from a "policy-dependent" model to a "self-reliant, flexible, multi-profit, and win-win" model, expanding revenue channels through retail markets and ancillary services [3] Future Development Directions - Future focus areas include optimizing trading strategies to enhance medium to long-term electricity locking ratios, expanding green electricity and green certificate trading, and promoting digital trading system construction to improve forecasting and intelligent scheduling capabilities [3] - The service aspect aims to deepen user-side marketing and promote direct purchase models and comprehensive energy services, creating a new electricity marketing ecosystem that effectively responds to market fluctuations and achieves stable revenue growth [3]