杨德龙：尽管A股今年已站上过4000点，许多投资者仍不认同这是一轮牛市！年底是布局2026年行情的时间窗口

Market Overview - In 2025, China's capital market experienced a slow bull market, with major stock indices surpassing the 4000-point mark, although there was significant structural differentiation in market performance [1] - Investors focusing on the technology sector achieved better returns, while others saw limited gains, leading to skepticism about the bull market despite the index levels [1] Index Performance - Major indices showed positive movements: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3917.36 (+26.92, +0.69%) - Shenzhen Component Index: 13332.73 (+192.52, +1.47%) - ChiNext Index: 3191.98 (+69.75, +2.23%) [2] Economic Outlook for 2026 - The macroeconomic environment is expected to recover, supported by more proactive growth policies from the central government [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined specific measures to stabilize economic growth, focusing on boosting domestic demand [4] - CPI is projected to gradually rise to around 2%, while PPI may turn positive due to policies aimed at reducing overcapacity [4] Trade and Export - In 2025, China's export trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, setting a historical record [5] - The trade environment is expected to remain stable in 2026, particularly with a potential agreement between China and the U.S. [5] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose stance, with potential further declines in deposit and loan rates [6] - The trend of capital moving from savings to the capital market is expected to accelerate, with a significant increase in new stock accounts and fund issuance in 2025 [6] Consumer Trends - New consumption patterns have emerged, with companies like Pinduoduo and Moutai showing strong performance, while traditional consumption remains subdued [7] - As the stock market performs well, consumer spending is expected to rebound, benefiting both new and traditional consumption sectors [7] Foreign Investment - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a depreciation of the dollar and an appreciation of the yuan, attracting more foreign investment into A-shares [7] - In 2025, foreign capital maintained a net inflow, and this trend is likely to accelerate in 2026 [7] Gold Reserves and Currency Internationalization - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, enhancing the international status of the yuan [8] - The shift towards yuan settlement in international trade is seen as a strategic move to reduce reliance on the dollar and enhance China's position in global commodity pricing [8]