意外突破！缺乏催化剂的金价为何仍能狂飙？

Core Viewpoint - Despite a quiet market, gold prices have reached a historic high, indicating strong upward momentum driven by seasonal factors and a focus on whether bullish trends can continue into the year-end [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices broke the historical high set in October, with gold futures following suit shortly after [1]. - As of the time of writing, gold has risen over 4.5% in December, with only about a week of trading left in the year [4]. - Seasonal data shows that gold has an average return of 1.1% in December over the past 50 years, with a 52% probability of an increase [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has just entered the overbought territory, which is typical for a healthy upward trend [4]. - The average positive return for gold in December is 4.78%, while the average return during the 48% of months that saw declines is -2.9% [1]. Group 3: Seasonal Factors - Gold tends to perform well in the second half of December, particularly around Christmas, with a high probability of price increases during this period [4][5]. - The average daily return for gold in December indicates a tendency for prices to rise before and after Christmas, suggesting potential for further upward movement before year-end profit-taking begins [4].