2026年黄金还能上涨吗？上涨逻辑曝光！5个风险要警惕

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to continue rising through 2026, driven by several key factors including U.S. interest rate expectations, global economic deficits, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Current Gold Market Overview - In 2023, gold prices stabilized above $2,000 per ounce and surged past $4,000 in early October [3]. - Domestic gold prices have also increased, with gold jewelry exceeding 1,100 RMB per gram and gold bars surpassing 1,040 RMB per gram [3]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - U.S. Interest Rate Expectations: There is a 35% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January 2024, influenced by a lower-than-expected CPI of 2.7% and rising unemployment at 4.6% [5][7]. - Global Economic Deficits: The U.S. federal deficit is projected to exceed $1.8 trillion in 2025, with Japan's government debt at 260% of GDP, indicating a trend of increasing national debts [7][9]. - Central Bank Gold Purchases: Global official gold reserves reached 36,274 tons by Q2 2025, with significant purchases from countries like Poland and China, indicating a long-term strategic demand for gold [9][11]. - Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing global tensions in various regions are likely to increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11]. Group 3: Institutional Predictions and Investment Strategies - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, while Citigroup suggests a potential challenge to $5,000 in the medium to long term [17]. - Despite the long-term bullish outlook, short-term volatility is expected due to the rapid increase in gold prices from $3,000 to $4,000 this year [17][20].