为什么说欧盟撤回，但又没完全撤回“禁燃令”

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has officially withdrawn its plan to ban the sale of new gasoline vehicles starting in 2035, opting for a more flexible emissions reduction strategy that requires a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions from new cars compared to 2021 levels by 2035, rather than the previous 100% target [2][3][4]. Emission Reduction Changes - The initial aggressive target of a complete ban on gasoline vehicles was proposed in 2021, which led to significant industry upheaval. The European Parliament passed a zero-emission agreement in February 2023, but under pressure from countries like Germany and Italy, the EU made compromises, allowing for exemptions for vehicles using synthetic fuels [3][4]. - The new proposal allows for a 90% reduction in emissions, with the remaining 10% potentially offset by using low-carbon steel, synthetic fuels, or non-food biofuels. Additionally, a three-year window from 2030 to 2032 has been established, requiring a 55% reduction in passenger car emissions and a 40% reduction for vans compared to 2021 levels [3][4]. Market Implications - The policy shift allows for various vehicle types, including plug-in hybrids and traditional gasoline vehicles, to remain in the market while still aiming for significant emissions reductions. However, the majority of vehicles sold will still need to be zero-emission to meet the 90% reduction target [4][9]. - The slow adoption of electric vehicles has been a critical factor in this policy adjustment, with European automakers like Volkswagen and Stellantis advocating for more lenient targets due to weak demand for electric vehicles [4][5]. Competitive Landscape - European automakers are facing competitive pressure from companies like Tesla and Chinese manufacturers, prompting the need for policy adjustments to protect local market shares. The German government has been a key advocate for this policy change, emphasizing a "technology-neutral" approach to maintain industrial competitiveness [5][6]. - The decision to retain the internal combustion engine market while offsetting emissions through other means is seen as a pragmatic approach that aligns with current market conditions [5][6]. Legislative Process - The new proposal requires approval from EU member states and the European Parliament, indicating that the coordination process may be complex and contentious due to differing national interests [6]. Support for Small Electric Vehicles - The EU has introduced a new regulatory category for small electric vehicles (M1E), aimed at promoting urban commuting solutions. This category includes vehicles under 4.2 meters in length, with incentives for manufacturers producing these models [9][10]. - The EU plans to set more lenient requirements for safety and range for M1E vehicles and will implement a "super credit" system, allowing manufacturers to earn additional carbon credits for each small electric vehicle sold, thereby easing overall emissions reduction pressures [10][11]. Corporate Strategy - Companies like Stellantis and Renault are positioned to benefit significantly from the new M1E category, as they have been advocating for differentiated regulatory policies for small vehicles. Stellantis has noted a drastic reduction in affordable small car models due to regulatory costs, highlighting the need for additional support [10][11]. - The EU's push to increase the electric vehicle procurement ratio in corporate fleets is seen as a crucial lever to boost electric vehicle demand, as corporate fleets account for a significant portion of vehicle sales in the EU [12]. Overall Assessment - While the EU has abandoned the "one-size-fits-all" ban on internal combustion vehicles, it has not relinquished its core emissions reduction goals. The new approach seeks a balance between industrial protection and environmental objectives, although internal disagreements among member states and increasing global competition in the electric vehicle sector present challenges for successful implementation [13].