今年暴涨近70%！现货黄金，再创历史新高！什么情况？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is driven by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical risks, and increased demand from central banks and investors [1][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of December 22, the London spot gold price has surpassed $4,400 per ounce, marking a 67% increase from early 2025 when it was below $2,600 [1]. - International gold prices have shown a volatile upward trend since early December, with a cumulative increase of approximately 4% since the beginning of the month [2]. - COMEX gold prices reached a new historical high of $4,425 per ounce on December 22, indicating strong market momentum [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. labor market data, including a higher-than-expected non-farm employment increase and a rising unemployment rate, has led to expectations of a dovish monetary policy in 2026, supporting gold prices [2]. - Central banks globally have continued to increase their gold holdings, with a net addition of 1,045 tons in 2024, providing fundamental support for gold prices [4]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Long-term projections suggest that gold prices could exceed $4,750 to $4,900 per ounce by 2026, driven by persistent demand and limited supply [5]. - The market anticipates a structural imbalance between rigid demand and elastic supply, which will continue to support gold prices in the coming years [5]. - However, there are concerns about potential market corrections and geopolitical developments that could impact gold prices in the short term, with expectations of a trading range between $4,250 and $4,550 per ounce [5].