中金：中高端新能源市场或彰显韧性 关注L3智驾交易主线

Core Viewpoint - The domestic automotive market in China is expected to face pressures from the withdrawal of subsidy policies and demand exhaustion by 2026, leading to potential sales challenges. However, with government support for domestic demand, passenger vehicle sales may exhibit a trend of low performance initially followed by recovery later on [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The consumption structure is shifting downwards, with electric vehicles (EVs) taking over from hybrids to achieve high growth. The overall consumption structure of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to show a downward trend by 2025, with a significant increase in the share of vehicles priced below 100,000 yuan [2]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is slowing, but pure electric vehicles are expected to see substantial growth in the mass market, while the hybrid market in the mid-to-high-end segment continues to grow despite a high base [2]. Sales Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to face pressures from the withdrawal of subsidies and demand exhaustion, potentially leading to lower sales. Nevertheless, the new energy sector is expected to maintain a double-digit year-on-year growth rate, particularly in the mid-to-high-end market where the impact of subsidy withdrawal is expected to be minimal [3]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for new energy vehicles is still in a state of reshuffling, with intense competition leading to a decline in market share for leading brands, while other brands are actively seeking to break through [2][4]. - Key trends to watch include tactical adjustments from leading new energy vehicle manufacturers and opportunities for latecomer brands to reverse their fortunes. Additionally, the introduction of Level 3 autonomous driving trials may mark a turning point in high-level intelligent driving, with companies that can differentiate their driving capabilities expected to gain competitive advantages [4]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include: 1. Leading new energy manufacturers adjusting their strategies: Li Auto (02015), BYD (002594) [5] 2. Latecomer new energy manufacturers with potential for reversal: Chery Automobile (09973), Great Wall Motors (601633), Changan Automobile (000625.SZ), SAIC Motor (600104), Geely Automobile (00175) [5] 3. Companies with brand advantages and technological attributes: Seres (601127), Leap Motor (09863), NIO (09866), Xpeng Motors (09868) [5].