“圣诞老人反弹”准备就绪，或为美股2026年定下乐观基调？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a stagnation in upward momentum as it approaches the end of the year, but analysts believe that the anticipated "Santa Claus Rally" may still occur, which typically happens during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Indicators - Historical data suggests that the absence of a year-end rally often serves as a warning signal for market conditions, as noted by the late market analyst Yale Hirsch [1]. - The S&P 500 index has the potential to reach new historical highs by year-end, with the index having set a record closing high on December 11, above 6900 points [2]. - Economic reports from the past week indicate a cooling in inflation and a slowdown in job growth, which may provide the Federal Reserve with more room to lower interest rates, thereby increasing investor interest in risk assets like stocks [3]. Group 2: Market Breadth and Sector Performance - The current market rebound is not limited to a few large tech stocks, as bank stocks have shown strong performance, indicating a broader market rally [4]. - The Russell 2000 small-cap index has outperformed the S&P 500, and equal-weighted indices are also performing better than their market-cap-weighted counterparts, suggesting an expanding breadth of the rally [4]. - The performance of cyclical sectors such as industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary stocks is closely tied to investor sentiment regarding economic strength, which is viewed positively if these stocks can rise alongside or replace underperforming AI stocks [5]. Group 3: Concerns Regarding AI Stocks - Despite optimism for a year-end rally, there are concerns regarding the valuation of AI-related stocks, particularly due to the significant capital expenditures required to support AI infrastructure [6]. - A warning signal was raised when Blue Owl Capital withdrew from a $10 billion data center project with Oracle, citing concerns over the company's rising debt levels and substantial AI spending [6].