Core Viewpoint - The report from First Shanghai highlights that Meili Tianyuan Medical Health (02373) is enhancing its operational and integration capabilities through a dual approach of "internal growth + external expansion," with a target price of HKD 43.7 and an initial buy rating [1]. Group 1: Business Model and Ecosystem - Meili Tianyuan has established a "Double Beauty + Double Health" collaborative business model, creating a comprehensive beauty and health ecosystem that includes brands like Meili Tianyuan, Nairui'er, Xiuker, and Yanyuan, covering a full lifecycle of services from high-end beauty to health management [2]. - The core services focus on "lifestyle beauty + medical beauty + sub-health management," guiding customers from lifestyle beauty to high-value medical and health services, thus achieving comprehensive lifecycle management [2]. Group 2: Growth Strategy - The company employs a dual strategy of "internal growth + external expansion" to enhance operational and integration capabilities, utilizing 38 self-developed systems for refined operations, maintaining a customer repurchase rate above 80%, and keeping customer acquisition costs below 2% [3]. - On the external front, the company has made strategic acquisitions of Nairui'er and Siyanli, leveraging strong cash flow to significantly increase membership scale and net profit margins, showcasing strong synergy and integration capabilities [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Meili Tianyuan is positioned to lead the transformation of the beauty industry, which is trending towards branding, chain operations, and digitalization, by leveraging its multi-brand strategy, nationwide store network, and advanced digital systems [4]. - The company aims to transition the industry from a fragmented state to a more consolidated and robust structure, enhancing customer value through its "Double Beauty + Double Health" ecosystem [4]. Group 4: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported strong performance with direct store traffic reaching 920,000, a year-on-year increase of 47.8%, and active members rising to 120,000, up 46.5% [5]. - Revenue reached RMB 1,459 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.2%, while adjusted net profit was RMB 191 million, achieving a record high adjusted net profit margin of 13.1%, demonstrating exceptional profitability resilience amid macro pressures [5]. Group 5: Profit Forecast - The company has significant growth potential driven by both internal growth and acquisition capabilities, with its true growth boundary dependent on management capabilities [6]. - Using a discount rate of 10% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, the estimated fair value of the company is HKD 10.3 billion, with a target price of HKD 43.7, indicating a potential upside of 65.4% from the previous closing price, corresponding to PE ratios of 29.8 and 24.5 for 2025 and 2026 respectively, thus receiving a buy rating [6].
第一上海：首次覆盖美丽田园医疗健康予“买入”评级 目标价43.7港元