Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-22 09:33Core Insights - The latest performance report of North American software sector provides reassurance to the market, with median revenue CAGR for SaaS and infrastructure software companies remaining stable at 15% for 2024-2026, while the average increased from 15% to 16% [1] - Net Revenue Retention (NRR) rates remain stable, with notable performances from Cloudflare and Rubrik, indicating strong customer retention and upsell potential [1] - The software industry is expected to achieve a second acceleration in growth as generative AI and Agentic AI transition from concepts to strategic necessities for businesses by 2026 [1] Revenue Performance - Revenue growth rates for the covered companies show a median CAGR of 15% for 2024-2026, with the average slightly increasing to 16% [1] - The industry has not seen significant downward revisions in revenue expectations for two consecutive quarters, indicating stability [1] Profitability Metrics - Operating Profit Margin (OPM) is expected to see a modest increase, with the median rising from 1.0% to 1.2% and the average from 2.3% to 2.6% for 2024-2026 [2] - More than half of the companies in the sample did not experience any changes in operating profit margins, reflecting a cautious approach to cost-cutting [2] - Companies are focusing on reinvesting AI-driven efficiency gains into sales and R&D rather than further reducing costs [2] Individual Company Analysis - Rubrik leads the sector with a revised revenue CAGR of 34% for 2024-2026, alongside significant improvements in operating profit margin and free cash flow rate [3] - DigitalOcean shows exceptional sales efficiency, with its sales efficiency metric increasing significantly, allowing it to advance its growth targets by a year [3] - Fastly has demonstrated a strong recovery, with upward revisions in revenue growth guidance and improvements in multiple performance metrics [4] Market Trends - The overall industry is showing positive momentum, with average revenue exceeding expectations by 2.3% and profit exceeding expectations by 2.8% [5] - Check Point and Fastly have notably outperformed expectations, with Check Point achieving its fastest growth rate since 2012 [5] Strategic Outlook - Citigroup maintains a preference for companies with large scale, stable growth, and high efficiency, highlighting Datadog, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler as leaders [6] - The competitive landscape in the AI sector is expected to shift significantly by 2026, favoring companies with strong customer resources, technology reserves, and cash flow [6] - Investors are encouraged to focus on established growth leaders rather than speculative turnaround stocks [6]