前瞻2026：春季行情或提前启动，三大主线布局“十五五”开局之年

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "spring market" phenomenon in the capital market, highlighting its significance as a seasonal trend and a key opportunity for investors to position themselves for the upcoming year, particularly with the expectations for 2026 as the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Understanding the "Spring Market" - The "spring market" refers to a phase of upward movement in the market from year-end to the first quarter, driven by multiple factors such as policy expectations, liquidity environment, fundamental outlook, and market risk appetite [2] - Over the past seven years (2019-2025), the spring market has shown a high frequency of positive returns, occurring in four out of seven years, with notable variations in strength and structural characteristics [2][3] - The performance of major indices during the spring market varies significantly, with growth stocks generally outperforming, but specific leading sectors changing each year [2][4] Group 2: Drivers of the Spring Market - The spring market is supported by three seasonal positive factors: 1. Policy expectation window, where the December Central Economic Work Conference sets the tone for the following year's economic policies, creating a fertile ground for thematic investments [5] 2. A relatively friendly liquidity environment, as banks increase credit to achieve a "good start" for the year, providing potential incremental funds to the stock market [5] 3. A performance data vacuum in the first quarter, allowing the market to focus on medium to long-term trends without immediate earnings constraints [6] Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The conditions for the spring market in 2026 appear more mature, with a higher probability of occurrence, and the initiation of the market may occur earlier than usual, potentially starting in late December 2025 [7] - High expectations for policy in 2026, as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with anticipated policies focusing on technological innovation and industrial upgrades [7][8] - The consensus on profit recovery is forming, with expectations for industrial enterprises to enter a recovery phase in 2026, particularly in the midstream manufacturing sector [8] Group 4: Key Investment Themes - If the spring market unfolds as expected, it is likely to exhibit more balanced and structured characteristics rather than a simple broad-based rally, with three main investment themes: 1. Technology innovation and self-sufficiency, focusing on AI technology and its applications [9] 2. Recovery of cyclical sectors and improvement in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in mid to downstream manufacturing and traditional cyclical industries [9] 3. Low valuation and stable performance assets, with a focus on defensive and steady income-generating sectors, including brokerage firms [10]