溃败不在货架! 高端零食是否被代工模式“反噬”？

Core Insights - The high-end snack industry is facing significant challenges, as evidenced by the bankruptcy filing of Zhongxuegao, the acquisition of Haagen-Dazs, and the revenue decline of Baiguoyuan, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards value over brand prestige [1][5] - The control change plan for Liangpinpuzi has been terminated, exposing the company's struggles, with a revenue drop of nearly 15% to 8.046 billion yuan and a net profit decline of almost 50% to 180 million yuan in 2023 [3][5] - The industry is experiencing a structural challenge, with many high-end brands reporting revenue slowdowns and profit declines, indicating that mere strategic shifts and price adjustments are insufficient to address fundamental issues [5][6] Company-Specific Developments - Liangpinpuzi's attempts at self-rescue included a leadership change and a strategy shift towards "natural healthy snacks," but these efforts have not reversed the downward trend, with projected losses of 75 million to 105 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [4][5] - The company has faced a series of leadership changes, with the founder returning to management, but these changes have not yielded positive results, as evidenced by ongoing losses and revenue declines [4][6] - The brand's struggles reflect broader industry trends, where high-end snack brands are losing market share and consumer trust due to unclear positioning and frequent strategic shifts [5][8] Industry Trends - The high-end snack sector is witnessing a collective slowdown, with many brands experiencing revenue declines and increased competition from value-oriented and health-focused brands [6][7] - Consumer preferences are shifting towards healthier options, with a significant portion of consumers prioritizing price comparisons when purchasing snacks, undermining the high-margin strategies of premium brands [6][7] - The rise of discount snack stores and the emergence of new health-focused brands are intensifying competition, further challenging established high-end brands [7][8] Market Dynamics - Traditional sales channels for high-end snacks are under pressure, with declining foot traffic and rising operational costs leading to reduced profitability [10][11] - Brands are exploring new sales channels, such as community group buying and live-streaming sales, but these efforts have not consistently translated into profitability [11][12] - The industry's reliance on traditional retail models is proving inadequate, as many brands struggle to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and market conditions [10][11] Supply Chain and Operational Challenges - High-end snack brands are facing increased cost pressures due to rising raw material prices and operational inefficiencies, which are squeezing profit margins [13][14] - Many brands lack effective control over their supply chains, leading to vulnerability to cost increases and operational challenges [13][14] - The complexity of managing diverse product lines and the need for improved operational efficiency are critical for brands to regain market competitiveness [13][14] Capital Market Sentiment - The capital market's attitude towards high-end snack brands has shifted from aggressive growth to a focus on profitability and sustainable business models, leading to reduced investment and shareholder confidence [16][17] - Brands that have consistently underperformed are facing divestment from major investors, indicating a loss of confidence in their growth prospects [16][17] - The changing investment landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for brands to reassess their strategies and focus on long-term viability [17][18] Future Outlook - The high-end snack industry is in a period of significant transformation, with many brands needing to redefine their value propositions and focus on product quality and consumer engagement [18][19] - Brands must prioritize differentiation and emotional connections with consumers to remain competitive in a crowded market [19] - The current market conditions may serve as a catalyst for necessary changes, pushing brands to innovate and adapt to evolving consumer demands [18][19]