不管普京最终怎么选，2050年的俄罗斯，只会越来越离不开中国

Core Viewpoint - The recent EU sanctions have severely impacted Russia's energy sector, particularly its oil exports, leading to a significant reduction in its ability to operate in international markets and a shift towards reliance on China for energy exports [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact of Sanctions - The EU's 19th round of sanctions has blacklisted 117 Russian oil tankers, bringing the total number of sanctioned Russian vessels to 557, crippling Russia's ability to sell oil [1]. - The sanctions have made it difficult for Russia to repair ships, obtain insurance, and settle payments, resulting in rising transportation costs and logistical challenges [3]. - The sanctions on major Russian energy companies have restricted their access to USD payment channels and international financing, causing third-party buyers to withdraw from purchasing Russian oil [3]. Group 2: Shift in Energy Markets - Russia's energy cooperation with Europe has drastically reduced, with European imports of Russian energy plummeting, making it unlikely for Russia to regain its previous market share in Europe [5][7]. - The reliance on energy exports for budget revenue is high, with the energy sector providing one-third of Russia's budget income, making the economy vulnerable [7][9]. - Russia's energy production is at risk due to aging oil fields and a lack of new discoveries, with over 90% of drilling and mining equipment being imported [9][11]. Group 3: Pivot to China - The Power of Siberia pipeline is operating at full capacity, supplying 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China annually, with plans to increase this to 44 billion cubic meters [13][15]. - Russia has become China's largest oil supplier, with nearly 20% of China's oil imports coming from Russia, and the share of natural gas steadily increasing to about 18% [17]. - The use of local currencies in energy trade between Russia and China is rising, establishing a payment system that is less reliant on USD and EUR, enhancing resilience against Western sanctions [17][20]. Group 4: Long-term Cooperation - The energy cooperation roadmap signed for 2025 includes traditional energy supply increases and renewable energy development, creating a comprehensive partnership from exploration to processing [22]. - Despite competition from other Asian countries, China remains the most viable market for Russian energy exports due to its large consumption capacity [27][29]. - The ongoing energy transition globally poses challenges for traditional energy demand, but China's stable energy demand provides a crucial buffer for Russia's export revenues [33][35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Russia's energy technology independence is challenging, with significant reliance on Chinese technology in low-carbon and renewable sectors [38][40]. - The long-term presence of Western sanctions and internal technological shortcomings necessitate deeper cooperation with China as a strategic choice for Russia [42][44]. - By 2050, Russia's energy landscape will be reshaped, requiring a deep binding with China to maintain its status as an energy power and adapt to global energy transitions [46][48][49].