美元颓势难逆转，2026年或陷多重逆风

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is projected to decline by approximately 9% in 2025, marking its worst annual performance in eight years, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, narrowing interest rate differentials with other major currencies, and concerns over the US fiscal deficit and political uncertainty [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - The primary factors driving the dollar's weakness include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, narrowing interest rate differentials with other major currencies, and concerns regarding the US fiscal deficit and political uncertainty [1] - The actual effective exchange rate index of the dollar was reported at 108.7 in October, down from a record high of 115.1 in January, indicating that the dollar remains overvalued despite the decline [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The market widely anticipates that the dollar will continue to weaken in 2026, with the rationale being a potential convergence in global growth, a narrowing of the US economic growth advantage, and factors such as fiscal stimulus in Germany and economic improvement in the Eurozone that may reduce the dollar's attractiveness [1] - Divergence in monetary policy is another significant source of pressure, with expectations that the new Federal Reserve chair may adopt a more dovish stance and continue rate cuts, while other major central banks like the European Central Bank may maintain rates or even consider rate hikes [1] Group 3: Short-term Considerations - Investors caution that despite the long-term bearish trend for the dollar, there may be short-term rebounds due to inflows into the stock market driven by the AI boom [1] - Any significant blow to US economic growth could serve as an additional drag on the dollar [1]