王晋斌：五大变化叠加，美联储未来困境越发显著

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has a systemic tendency to underestimate the resilience of U.S. inflation and economic growth rates, leading to repeated delays in the timeline for inflation to converge to the long-term target of 2% [1][6] Group 1: Long-term Interest Rates - The median long-term policy interest rate was estimated at 2.5% at the end of 2019, with a range of 2.0-3.3%. By the end of 2023, the Fed still expects this rate to be 2.5%. For the end of 2024, the rate is projected to rise to 3.0%, with a range of 2.4-3.9%. By the end of 2025, the rate is expected to remain at 3.0%, but the lower bound of the range will increase to 2.6% [1][2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Asset Holdings - As of December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve's total assets are approximately $6.53 trillion, with nearly $4.2 trillion in U.S. government bonds, accounting for about 64.1% of total assets. In comparison, at the end of 2019, total assets were about $4.17 trillion, with government bonds making up 55.9% [3] Group 3: Economic Growth Rates - The median long-term growth rate for the U.S. economy (real GDP) was estimated at 1.8% at the end of 2019, with a range of 1.7-2.2%. By the end of 2025, the median remains at 1.8%, but the upper limit of the range has been increased to 2.5%. The average real GDP growth rate from 2019 to 2024 was 2.4%, significantly higher than the Fed's long-term median estimate [4] Group 4: Inflation Trends - Since the end of 2019, the long-term target for inflation (PCE) of 2% has remained unchanged, but the timeline for convergence has been repeatedly pushed back. The December 2025 economic forecast summary extends the timeline for inflation to converge to 2% to 2028, compared to earlier forecasts that anticipated convergence in 2025, 2026, and 2027 [6]