野村：2026年全球经济有望强劲增长 预计美联储将额外降息两次

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's 2026 Global Economic Outlook report expresses optimism for the global economy, driven by AI-led investment and supportive monetary and fiscal policies [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. is projected to have a real GDP growth rate of 2.4% in 2026, supported by easing labor supply pressures and accelerated AI-driven business investments [1] - AI infrastructure investments are expected to contribute approximately 1% to 1.5% growth to the U.S. economy annually [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. is anticipated to decline to 4.0% in 2026, lower than the Federal Reserve's or market's expectations [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation is expected to remain sticky, averaging closer to 3% throughout 2026, with a significant decline only anticipated in the fourth quarter [1] - The current interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is considered over, with two additional rate cuts expected in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.125% by September [2] Group 3: Regional Economic Outlook - Europe is projected to maintain a GDP growth rate of 1.25% in 2026, with the European Central Bank expected to keep its policy unchanged [2] - Asia's GDP growth is forecasted to average 3.6% in 2026, supported by strong tech product exports and rising storage chip prices [2] - Economic growth in Asia will show divergence, with countries like South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and India likely to exceed market expectations, while Thailand and the Philippines may underperform [2] Group 4: AI and Commodity Markets - Concerns about an "AI bubble" are acknowledged, with the focus on whether investments in AI will yield reasonable returns [3] - The AI investment trend is expected to continue into 2026, with significant initial investments and the importance of first-mover advantages [3] - Various commodities, including precious metals and agricultural products, are anticipated to perform strongly in 2026, driven by increasing demand [3]