美国“万亿私募信贷大故事”正在崩塌

Core Insights - The U.S. private credit market, once seen as a safe haven for individual investors, is facing a dual shock of deteriorating fundamentals and collapsing confidence, leading to asset revaluation and exposing the industry's bubble [1] - Blue Owl Capital's withdrawal from financing Oracle's $10 billion AI data center project highlights a fundamental shift in the credit market's attitude towards aggressive capital expenditures by tech giants, resulting in pressure on Oracle's stock and the broader tech sector [1][3] - The crisis in the private credit industry, which exceeds $2 trillion, is reflected in the struggles of Business Development Companies (BDCs) that cater to individual investors, facing stock price declines, rising bad debts, and redemption pressures [1][5] Private Credit Market Dynamics - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warned of systemic risks in the $1.7 trillion private credit market, indicating that the current issues may be just the beginning [2] - Apollo Global Management is taking defensive measures, including cash accumulation, reducing leverage, and selling high-risk debt assets in preparation for potential market turmoil [2] Blue Owl Capital's Withdrawal - Blue Owl Capital's decision to withdraw from the Oracle project has triggered market anxiety, revealing the fragility of funding chains for AI infrastructure projects [3][4] - The withdrawal was driven by stricter loan terms and concerns over Oracle's rising debt levels, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment [3][4] BDC Sector Challenges - BDCs, which have seen their assets grow significantly, are now facing severe challenges, with many experiencing double-digit stock price declines despite the S&P 500's 16% rise this year [5][6] - The BDC sector's reliance on high-interest loans to lower-rated mid-sized companies is now punishing investors who exit at the wrong time, as income expectations are affected by rising interest rates and deteriorating credit quality [6] Bad Debt and Financial Health - KKR's BDC, FS KKR Capital, has seen its stock price drop by approximately 33% this year, with bad loans increasing from 3.5% to about 5% [7] - BlackRock's BDC reported that 7% of its loans are in default, highlighting the growing concerns over credit quality within the sector [8] Liquidity and Redemption Issues - The liquidity crisis and valuation disputes are accelerating market declines, as evidenced by Blue Owl's failed attempt to merge its private BDC with publicly traded counterparts [9] - The disconnect between private asset pricing and public market valuations is leading to panic-driven redemptions, creating significant uncertainty for retail investors attracted by high dividends [9]