破7在即！人民币升值4%，中巴结算用人民币，去美元化要加速了？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) is approaching the critical exchange rate of 7 against the US Dollar (USD), with current rates indicating a strong upward trend, making a breach of this level likely imminent [1][5]. Exchange Rate Trends - The Yuan has experienced significant fluctuations throughout the year, starting at 7.33 CNY per USD in early 2025, dropping to a low of 7.48 CNY due to trade tensions, and then rebounding to a current rate of approximately 7.03 CNY, representing an overall appreciation of about 4% since the beginning of the year [3][6]. - As of December 22, the Yuan continues to appreciate slowly, with the latest exchange rate at 0.1420, indicating a steady upward movement [5]. Factors Driving Appreciation - Three main factors are contributing to the Yuan's appreciation: 1. The US Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts, which have lowered borrowing costs and weakened the USD. The Fed has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points over the year, with expectations for further cuts in the near future [9][11]. 2. A year-end trend where companies are converting USD to CNY to avoid losses from currency depreciation, leading to increased demand for the Yuan [15][16]. 3. The need for a strong Yuan to support its internationalization, as many countries are moving away from reliance on the USD, making a stable and appreciating Yuan more attractive for trade settlements [18][20]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is increasingly bullish on the Yuan, with both onshore and offshore rates reaching 14-month highs, indicating strong expectations for further appreciation [5][6].