2026年，投资只看两件事

Group 1 - The A-share market is showing signs of a potential year-end rally, with major indices breaking through the 60-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend if external factors, such as the US stock market reaching new highs, align [1] - The core sectors driving this potential rally are consumer stocks and AI application-related stocks, with a target for the Shanghai Composite Index to surpass the previous high of 4034 [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the stock market outlook hinges on two main factors: monetary easing and the practical application of AI technology [2][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to enter a period of monetary easing, with significant purchases of US Treasury bonds, which could lead to a favorable environment for commodities, particularly precious metals like silver and gold [2] - The AI sector is currently experiencing a bubble, with concerns about whether AI can deliver productivity improvements that justify the costs associated with computational power [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between monetary easing and the AI bubble is critical, as easing may delay concerns about the sustainability of AI investments [7] - By the end of this year, investors are poised to make significant bets on AI applications, with companies like Tesla and Google being focal points for investment [7][8] - The current market hotspots include sectors such as the Hainan Free Trade Zone, communication equipment, power equipment, memory chips, and CPO, driven by policy support and the demand for AI-related infrastructure [8]