曹德旺预言要成真？若不出意外，2026年房地产将面临5大转折

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated five major shifts in the Chinese real estate market by 2026, emphasizing a transition from investment-driven speculation to a focus on housing as a necessity, despite the false attribution of these predictions to the influential entrepreneur Cao Dewang [1][3]. Group 1: Shift in Market Dynamics - The real estate market in China is expected to transition from an investment-driven model to one that prioritizes residential needs, aligning housing prices with local income levels [5]. - The decline in property values over the past four years has diminished the investment appeal of real estate, prompting a shift towards housing as a necessity [5]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - The article predicts that the price decline will shift from smaller cities, which have already seen significant drops, to first-tier cities, where prices are still inflated and may experience a substantial correction [6][8]. - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities has exceeded 40, indicating that local residents' incomes can no longer support high property prices, leading to expected price adjustments [8]. Group 3: Impact of Affordable Housing - The government plans to accelerate the introduction of affordable housing, with a target of providing 6 million units over the next five years, which will significantly lower housing costs for low-income families [10]. - The influx of affordable housing is anticipated to divert demand away from the commercial housing market, exerting downward pressure on property prices [10]. Group 4: Sales Model Evolution - There is a shift from a pre-sale system to a focus on selling completed homes, driven by consumer demand for quality assurance and to mitigate risks associated with unfinished properties [12]. - The government has indicated a move towards increasing the proportion of completed home sales, which is expected to rise significantly by 2026 [12]. Group 5: Quality Over Quantity - The real estate development approach is shifting from a "rough development" model, which prioritizes speed and profit, to a focus on building quality homes with better design and amenities [14]. - This change is expected to align with consumer preferences for well-designed and high-quality housing, which will become more prominent in the market by 2026 [14].