信达证券：海南封关叠加旺季红利 重点关注免税板块

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start its island-wide customs closure operation on December 18, 2025, which will bring policy dividends directly benefiting the offshore duty-free consumption sector [1] - The first day of the customs closure saw offshore duty-free shopping amount to 161 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 61%, marking a strong start [1] - From December 18 to 20, the duty-free sales in Sanya exceeded 100 million yuan for three consecutive days, with sales on December 19 and 20 increasing by 45.8% and 47% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2 - The customs closure policy has significantly boosted the Hainan tourism market, with flight bookings to Haikou and Sanya increasing by 19% and 51% year-on-year during the New Year period in 2026 [2] - International flight orders to Haikou increased by over 40%, with sales for the Spring Festival in 2026 doubling year-on-year, indicating strong demand from international travelers [2] - The continuous influx of tourists supports offshore duty-free consumption, creating a positive interaction between tourism and duty-free shopping [2] Group 3 - Since September 2025, the offshore duty-free market has shown signs of recovery, with sales figures for September, October, and November reaching 1.733 billion, 2.425 billion, and 2.379 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4%, 13.1%, and 27.1% [3] - The new duty-free policy implemented on November 1, 2025, expanded the range of eligible products and included departing travelers, which has led to a significant increase in sales [3] - From November 1 to 17, 2025, offshore duty-free sales reached 1.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.52%, laying a solid foundation for growth post-customs closure [3] Group 4 - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) holds a dominant position in the Hainan duty-free market, operating six out of twelve offshore duty-free stores, including the largest single duty-free store, CDF Haikou International Duty-Free City [4] - CDFG's market share in Hainan reached 82% in 2024, with over 53% of the company's overall revenue coming from the Hainan region in the first half of 2025 [4] - On the first day of the customs closure, CDFG's sales in Hainan reached 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90%, significantly outperforming the industry average [4]