明年一季度地方计划发债超万亿

Core Viewpoint - Local governments are set to issue over 1 trillion yuan in bonds in early 2024 to support major project construction, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing the economy and addressing hidden debt risks [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Plans - As of December 22, at least 14 provinces and municipalities have announced plans to issue local government bonds, with a cumulative issuance scale nearing 1.2 trillion yuan for the first quarter of 2024 [1][2]. - Jiangsu province plans to issue a total of 1,056 billion yuan in government bonds in the first quarter, including 700 billion yuan in new bonds and 356 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [2][4]. - The actual bond issuance scale for the first quarter is expected to exceed the currently disclosed 1.2 trillion yuan as more provinces announce their plans [5]. Group 2: Debt Management and Policy - The National People's Congress requires approval for the total amount of new local government debt each year, which typically leads to concentrated bond issuance in the second half of the year [2]. - The State Council has been authorized to advance the issuance limits for the following year, allowing local governments to receive part of the new debt issuance quota early [2][3]. - The 2026 new local government debt limit is expected to be set at 60% of the previous year's limit, which would be approximately 3.12 trillion yuan based on the 2025 limit of 5.2 trillion yuan [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Investment - The central government has emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to stabilize investment, especially as fixed asset investment has seen a decline [4]. - Early bond issuance is anticipated to facilitate the commencement of significant projects, laying a solid foundation for economic growth in 2026 [4]. - The issuance of refinancing bonds is expected to be larger than new bonds, aimed at repaying old debts and alleviating hidden debt risks [6]. Group 4: Optimization of Bond Management - The Chinese government plans to optimize the management of local government special bonds to enhance their effectiveness and efficiency [7]. - A pilot program for "self-examination and self-issuance" of special bond projects has been implemented in several provinces, allowing local governments more flexibility in issuing bonds without national approval [7].