If You Think Apple Trading For 36x Earnings Is Nuts, You Can Bet Against Them With AAPD ETF

Core Viewpoint - Apple is currently trading at a high valuation with a trailing P/E of 36x and a forward P/E of 33x, despite lacking a blockbuster product recently and only achieving a 10% return over the past year [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The company's valuation metrics indicate premium multiples, with a trailing P/E of 36x and a forward P/E of 33x, reflecting a richly valued status [2]. - Recent fiscal year earnings growth followed two years of stagnation, suggesting a potential shift in performance [2]. - Retail sentiment data from Reddit shows bearish sentiment scores between 32-38 on r/wallstreetbets, while r/stocks remains neutral [2]. AAPD ETF Overview - The Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares (AAPD) provides -1x daily inverse exposure to Apple's stock price through derivatives, with an expense ratio of 0.01% and $18.9 million in assets under management [3]. - AAPD resets its exposure daily through rebalancing, which can lead to returns deviating from a simple inverse of Apple's performance over longer periods due to compounding effects [4]. Performance Characteristics - The ETF's asset base of $18.9 million impacts its liquidity, with daily volume and bid-ask spreads widening during periods of increased volatility, such as earnings announcements [4]. - AAPD is not suitable for long-term holding as it does not provide inverse returns of Apple's shares over extended periods due to daily rebalancing [5]. Comparison with TSLQ - The Tradr 2X Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSLQ) offers -2x leveraged inverse exposure to Tesla, with $315 million in assets under management, providing deeper liquidity compared to AAPD [6]. - TSLQ has a higher expense ratio of 1.17% and amplifies both gains and losses, accelerating compounding effects [6][7]. - AAPD offers unleveraged -1x inverse exposure, while TSLQ provides -2x leveraged exposure, highlighting differences in leverage structure and liquidity profiles [7].