2026 赌局：当 57% 的人都盯着 AI 泡沫，真正的猎人看哪里？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the psychological traps in the market, highlighting that while 57% of investors view the "collapse of tech stock valuations/AI retreat" as the biggest risk, this sentiment may indicate that the risk is already priced in and thus "safe" [5][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Risks - A significant portion of market participants (57%) are concerned about the tech stock bubble, suggesting that many have prepared for this risk by hedging or reducing positions [5][8]. - The article argues that a bubble under close scrutiny is less likely to burst suddenly, instead it may undergo a prolonged period of consolidation [9][10]. - The real dangers lie in "unpriced risks," which are often overlooked by the market, represented by lower percentages in risk assessments [11][12]. Group 2: Emerging Risks - The article identifies "silent killers" that are given minimal attention, such as potential currency collapses in emerging markets or failures of major commercial real estate firms, which could catch the market off guard [13][14]. - The concept of "fat tail risk" is introduced, emphasizing that the most significant threats may come from unexpected events rather than widely recognized risks [15]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Concerns - A notable concern is the potential for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which 27% of respondents fear, indicating a shift in market dynamics [16][18]. - The article suggests that the Fed's traditional role as a market savior may be compromised in 2026 due to persistent inflation and a potential private credit crisis [19][20]. - The Fed may face a dilemma where it cannot lower rates to stimulate the economy without risking inflation, leading to increased market volatility [20]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to avoid focusing solely on the majority's concerns (the 57%) and instead look for opportunities in overlooked areas of the market [21][22]. - The article encourages a shift in focus towards risks that are perceived as unlikely to occur, which may present hidden investment opportunities [23]. - Specific low-percentage risks mentioned include global trade wars (2%), emerging market crises (0%), and commercial real estate collapses (1%) [24].