日本加息落地，利率达30年最高水平，为什么这次股市没有崩盘？

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the highest level in 30 years, yet the market remained stable with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.81% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 1.38% [1] - The difference between this rate hike and the previous one in August 2024 is that the market had already priced in a 90% probability of the hike, compared to only 47.5% before the last hike, indicating that the market was better prepared this time [1] - The U.S. is in a rate-cutting cycle, which mitigates liquidity concerns stemming from Japan's rate hike, contributing to a calm market environment [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.1%, which has increased expectations for future rate cuts, leading to a surge in U.S. stock indices [3] - The notion of a global stock market crash may be misguided, as market behavior is often counterintuitive; when the market appears stable, it can be a sign of underlying risks [4] - The current bull market is primarily driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, making it inherently fragile and susceptible to sudden downturns [6] Group 3 - The anticipated benefits of U.S. rate cuts are already reflected in market pricing, but the liquidity crisis resulting from Japan's rate hike is just beginning, with long-term implications expected as the supply of liquidity tightens [7][9] - The long-term adjustment of Japan's interest rate policy suggests that the impact will not be short-lived, and the U.S. economy faces a paradox where strong AI development does not align with the urgency for rate cuts [9]