打破贬值预言！人民币突涨破7.05！企业扎堆套保、外资加速流入

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong appreciation of the RMB against the USD in December 2025, breaking market pessimism with the onshore and offshore RMB surpassing the 7.05 mark, reaching 7.0425 and 7.0382 respectively, marking a 14-month high and an annual appreciation of over 4% from a low of 7.4 at the beginning of the year [1][3][5] Group 2 - The overall weakening of the USD index, which fell approximately 10% from its high at the beginning of the year to around 98.25 in mid-December, is primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut in September and another in December, leading to expectations of continued easing in 2026 [3][6] - The RMB's middle rate adjustment on December 16, reported at 7.0602, was raised by 54 basis points, although it had previously been adjusted weaker for 10 consecutive trading days, indicating a dual-directional fluctuation policy aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate [3][5] - Seasonal demand for currency settlement at year-end has directly contributed to the rise in the exchange rate, with the bank's customer settlement surplus expanding from a deficit of 39.243 billion USD in January to a surplus of 51.758 billion USD by September, reflecting a shift in market expectations [5][6] - The RMB exchange rate exhibited characteristics of "weak first, strong later, and narrowed fluctuations" throughout 2025, with a significant drop to 7.35 in Q1 due to trade tensions, followed by a gradual recovery in Q2 as US-China tariff negotiations progressed [5][6] - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the US due to Fed rate cuts has alleviated capital outflow pressures, while the easing of tariff threats from the Trump administration has shifted the focus back to economic fundamentals rather than political factors [6]