人民币要变得更值钱了？黄奇帆预言：今后十年人民币将逐步升值至6.0左右

Core Viewpoint - The former mayor Huang Qifan predicts that the RMB may appreciate from around 7.0 to approximately 6.0 against the USD over the next decade, indicating that the same amount of RMB will exchange for more USD internationally, which will lower costs for consumers and businesses [1][12]. Group 1: Manufacturing Industry Transformation - Over the past decade, China's manufacturing sector has undergone a significant transformation, with its industrial added value accounting for 32% of the global total, establishing a "one-third" global structure [3]. - The nature of export goods has changed, with 60% of China's exports now being high-end equipment and electronic products, and industrial manufactured goods making up 90% of total exports [3]. - China has developed global competitive advantages in five key sectors: automotive, shipbuilding, high-speed rail, power equipment, and renewable energy, particularly in photovoltaics [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - China has maintained an average of $120 billion in actual foreign investment annually over the past decade, doubling the total from ten years ago, with a trend of fewer projects but larger individual investments in high-tech and capital-intensive fields [3][5]. - Foreign enterprises contribute approximately 30% of China's export value, with a 50% share in high-value-added equipment and electronic product exports [5]. Group 3: Domestic Industry Chain Completeness - China is the only country with a complete industrial classification across all categories, allowing for a robust domestic supply chain that enhances resilience and cluster effects [5]. - The proportion of processing trade in exports has decreased to below 20%, with over 80% of export products now having a domestic value-added share exceeding 80% [5][6]. Group 4: Currency and Trade Dynamics - The shift from low-value processing to high-value embedded exports is a core indicator of the strengthening of China's foreign trade, providing fundamental support for the RMB exchange rate [6]. - A strategic choice to promote moderate appreciation of the RMB is seen as beneficial for enhancing purchasing power and balancing domestic and international markets [8]. - The People's Bank of China aims to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate while promoting internationalization, which will enhance the currency's attractiveness as a reserve and pricing currency [8][10]. Group 5: Future Trade Structure - China aims to reduce price competition in exports and enhance brand value, focusing on high-quality rather than low-cost products [10]. - The goal is to develop a balanced trade structure, with services trade expected to account for 20% of total trade by 2040, aligning with global averages [10]. - The RMB's exchange rate is expected to exhibit "two-way fluctuations," with the central bank equipped with various tools to manage excessive market volatility [10].