有色60ETF（159881）涨超2.4%，铜铝供给紧张或延续价格支撑

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper mine supply disruptions have been ongoing this year, leading to a decline in supply growth, while copper smelting capacity is expected to increase by over 2 million tons by 2025 and more than 1 million tons in 2026, exacerbating the conflict between mining and smelting [1] - The TC price has been maintained below -40 USD/ton since April this year, with expectations of a TC price of 0 in 2026, increasing the probability of domestic copper smelting reductions, which will support higher copper prices [1] - In the aluminum sector, expectations of overseas production cuts are strengthening, with South Africa's Mozal Aluminum announcing maintenance shutdowns in 2026, while domestic aluminum ingot inventories have continued to decrease, with a total of 561,000 tons as of December 18, down by 18,000 tons month-on-month [1] Group 2 - Global aluminum inventory totals only 1.21 million tons, maintaining low safety stock levels, suggesting that supply and demand may remain in a tight balance for the next 2-3 years, which could support aluminum prices [1] - In the precious metals sector, U.S. inflation data has been better than expected, but its credibility is limited, leading to fluctuations in precious metal prices; gold's safe-haven demand and central bank purchases still have upward potential [1] - Silver prices have surged past 65 USD/ounce, reaching a historical high due to industrial demand, inventory squeezes, and shifts in financial policy, with continuous supply-demand gaps and low inventory supporting stronger price elasticity [1]