特朗普"钦点"理事米兰：美联储明年不继续降息就有衰退风险

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor appointed by President Trump, warns that the U.S. economy faces recession risks unless the Fed continues to cut interest rates next year, highlighting a deep division within the Fed regarding interest rate policy [1][2]. Group 1: Miran's Position on Interest Rates - Miran emphasizes the need for further interest rate cuts, suggesting that the rising unemployment rate exceeds expectations and should prompt a shift towards a more dovish policy stance [1][2]. - He has advocated for larger rate cuts of 50 basis points since joining the Fed in September, although he acknowledges that the necessity for such cuts has diminished after a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points [2][3]. - Miran argues that maintaining a tight policy could lead to unnecessary unemployment and that the underlying inflation rate is close to the Fed's target when excluding certain distortions [2][3]. Group 2: Divergence Among Fed Officials - Other Fed officials, such as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, express a more cautious stance, suggesting that the current monetary policy is favorable and that they can pause rate cuts to assess the impact of previous reductions [5][6]. - New York Fed President John Williams and Boston Fed President Susan Collins also indicate a preference for a more measured approach, with Collins noting concerns about persistent inflation [5][6]. - The recent FOMC meeting revealed significant internal dissent, with three votes against the decision to cut rates, reflecting differing priorities among officials regarding labor market conditions and inflation control [6].