跌破1499！飞天茅台“飞不动了”

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle, marking a significant decline of over 28% in the past six months, the largest drop in recent years [2][4]. Price Trends - The price of Feitian Moutai has fluctuated significantly, with reports of daily price changes, including a drop to 1540 yuan per bottle and subsequent increases within the same day [2]. - As of December 12, 2025, the wholesale reference price for Feitian Moutai has fallen to 1485 yuan per bottle for loose bottles and 1495 yuan for boxed products, marking the first time since 2013 that prices have fallen below the official guidance [2][4]. Historical Context - The last time Feitian Moutai prices were around 1500 yuan per bottle was in the first half of 2017, after which the industry experienced a prolonged upward trend [3]. - The cumulative price drop for loose bottles has reached 33.1% compared to the beginning of the year, with boxed products seeing a 33.7% decline [4]. Market Dynamics - High social inventory levels and promotional subsidies from e-commerce platforms have intensified price competition, with instances of prices as low as 1399 yuan per bottle on platforms like Pinduoduo [6]. - The "i Moutai" platform reported a 14.05% decline in tax-excluded revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year, with a significant 57.24% drop in the third quarter alone [6]. Company Actions - Guizhou Moutai announced a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling 300.01 billion yuan, which may have influenced market expectations and price fluctuations [5]. - Following rumors of a supply halt to distributors and a reduction in non-standard product quotas, prices saw a brief rebound before stabilizing again [5].