机构都在买，却不是你的投资机会

Core Viewpoint - The overall value proposition of the bond market is low this year, particularly for ultra-long-term government bonds, which have shown significant price declines despite some potential short-term opportunities emerging [1][2]. Group 1: Ultra-Long-Term Government Bonds - Ultra-long-term government bonds are defined as those with maturities of 20 years or more, primarily held by institutions like insurance companies and pension funds [1]. - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has shown a notable increase of 23.21% in 2024, but has recently entered a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of approximately 4% from early November to December 8 [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond has risen from 2.136% to 2.265%, indicating a significant upward movement in interest rates [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Institutional Behavior - The price movements of ultra-long-term bonds are influenced more by institutional demand rather than direct economic changes, as these bonds are primarily held by entities with long-term commitments [9]. - The recent decline in ultra-long-term bonds is attributed to concentrated selling by trading funds, particularly due to risk aversion stemming from credit events in the real estate sector [13][17]. - Institutional investors, such as insurance and pension funds, have not been the primary sellers but are adopting a wait-and-see approach amid increasing supply and changing policy expectations [17]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current environment suggests that ultra-long-term bonds may experience high volatility and weak trends, with future movements dependent on actual improvements in liquidity rather than macroeconomic rhetoric [19][20]. - Key indicators to monitor include upcoming political and economic meetings that may influence monetary policy and liquidity conditions [19]. - A cautious investment strategy is recommended, focusing on gradual accumulation at lower yield levels, particularly watching for the 30-year bond yield around 2.35% as a critical point for potential entry [21].