Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 智通财经网·2025-12-22 03:53Group 1: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs projects global GDP growth to be 2.8% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of 2.5% [1] - The U.S. economy is expected to outperform other major developed economies, with a GDP growth forecast of 2.6% in 2026, driven by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and a more accommodative financial environment [1] - China's GDP growth is anticipated to be 4.8% in 2026, exceeding market expectations, supported by strong export performance despite weak domestic demand [1] - The Eurozone's economic outlook is less favorable, with a projected GDP growth of 1.3%, although fiscal stimulus in Germany and stable growth in Spain may mitigate some structural challenges [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation - Despite stable overall output growth, improvements in the labor market may lag behind economic expansion, particularly in the U.S., where rising productivity increases the economic growth threshold needed for job creation [1] - Goldman Sachs expects inflation to decline more rapidly in 2026, with core inflation rates in the U.S. and the U.K. dropping from around 3% to near 2% by the end of 2026, aided by factors such as easing tariff impacts and slowing wage growth [2] - The Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.0% to 3.25% [2] - The macroeconomic outlook is seen as supportive for stock markets and many emerging market assets, although high valuations, particularly in AI-related sectors, and a weak labor market may increase market volatility [2]