楼市即将全面放开限制？房价要开始上涨了？发改委明确表示

Core Viewpoint - Recent policy signals from high-level authorities indicate a potential easing of housing purchase restrictions in major cities, which has sparked mixed reactions among ordinary families regarding the future of the real estate market [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Signals - Guangdong's "14th Five-Year Plan" mentions the need to "eliminate unreasonable restrictions on housing consumption," followed by the National Development and Reform Commission's call to "promote the removal of unreasonable consumption restrictions on automobiles and housing" [1]. - The easing of restrictions is interpreted as a signal to stimulate demand in the housing market, particularly in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [1][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The current market is characterized by a lack of confidence and purchasing power among potential buyers, with over 90% of respondents in a central bank survey expecting stable or declining housing prices [3]. - Despite an increase in household savings, the uncertainty surrounding employment and income has made large consumption decisions, such as home purchases, difficult [3][5]. Group 3: Inventory and Sales Data - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 key cities has reached 24.54 months, indicating that it would take over two years to sell existing inventory at the current sales pace [5]. - In Guangdong, new commodity housing sales dropped by 16.7% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, while real estate development investment decreased by 20.7% [5]. Group 4: Historical Context and Market Reactions - Historical examples from cities like Wuhan and Changchun show that easing purchase restrictions led to temporary increases in transactions, but these gains were not sustained, with some cities experiencing a "no new project launch" situation shortly after [7]. - The current policy signals are viewed as a "gentle remedy" aimed at stabilizing the market rather than a "strong stimulus" to drive up prices [7]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The effectiveness of the policy will depend on the overall economic environment and whether residents' income expectations improve [8]. - Families are advised to focus on their genuine housing needs and long-term repayment capabilities rather than speculating on short-term price fluctuations [8].