2026红马年警报，老话春夏多洪水碰上气候预测，我们该信吗？

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026, known as the "Red Horse Year," is expected to be significant due to historical patterns of extreme weather associated with this year in the Chinese calendar, particularly concerning flooding risks [1][3][5]. Climate Predictions - Historical records indicate that previous "Bingwu" years, such as 1966 and 1906, experienced severe flooding, suggesting a correlation between this year's characteristics and potential climate anomalies [3][7]. - The period from 2024 to 2026 is predicted to be influenced by La Niña and global warming, which may lead to increased extreme weather events [3][9]. Weather Patterns - The World Meteorological Organization forecasts that global average temperatures may reach record highs from 2025 to 2029, with a high probability of 2026 breaking previous temperature records [9]. - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to disrupt global atmospheric circulation, potentially leading to abnormal weather patterns in China, characterized by hot summers and increased rainfall during the rainy season [9][10]. Regional Impacts - Specific predictions for 2026 include intense convective weather in southern China from April to June, with risks of heavy rainfall and urban flooding, particularly in the Yangtze River basin [9][10]. - Northern regions may experience drought conditions during the summer, leading to a "flood in the south and drought in the north" scenario, which aligns with historical observations [10]. Agricultural Considerations - Historical agricultural advice suggests planting on higher ground to mitigate flooding risks, which remains relevant today [11][13]. - Adjusting crop types to those that are flood-resistant or have growth cycles that avoid peak flooding periods is recommended as a proactive strategy [13].